Special Technical Team

Alexander E. Metcalf, Ph.D.



Ph.D., Transport Economics, London University, Thesis: Towards a Generalized Model of Modal Split, 1974

B.S., Economics (Honors), London University, 1968

Dr. Metcalf, as President of TEMS, assumes overall responsibility for the firm’s high speed rail, policy, Forecasting, economics, planning and system studies. He is an internationally recognized authority in the areas of high speed rail economics, business planning, demand forecasting, economic and financial analysis and transportation models and systems. Dr. Metcalf developed the COMPASSTM demand forecasting model, which uses advanced statistical methods to predict traffic and revenues. The model has been used widely for revenue yield studies and has been used by both investment houses and bond rating agencies to assess major intercity rail projects across the U.S. and Canada.

Dr. Metcalf began his career in research at the Royal Institute of Public Administration in London, England, became an economic advisor for transportation with the European Community and transportation policy and planning studies. He was Chairman of the European Freight Study and a member of the Technical Advisory Committee for the European Passenger Study. He was appointed Chief Economist at British Rail and London Transport and, upon privatization, Managing Director of Transecon International. Over his career he has carried out major high speed rail policy and planning studies for British Rail, SNCF, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and USDOT.


Edwin R. “Chip” Kraft, Ph.D.

Director of Operations Planning


Ph.D., Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, 1998
M.S., Civil Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, 1983
B.S., Civil and Urban Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, 1982, magna cum laude
B.S., Economics, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, 1982, magna cum laude

Dr. Kraft, as Director of Rail Operations Planning he brings more than 25 years of expertise in passenger and freight rail planning systems. Dr. Kraft worked for CSX and UP Operations Department and Amtrak’s Financial Department. Dr. Kraft has led demand, operational, logistics, financial and planning studies, as well as management system development projects. Dr Kraft’s recent projects include Tri-State III High-Speed Rail Study: Minnesota DOT, Minneapolis-Duluth-Superior High Speed Restoration of Intercity Passenger Rail Service-Comprehensive Feasibility Study and Business Plan: St. Louis County, Florida Passenger Rail Business Plan: Florida DOT, Midwest Regional Rail Initiative: Nine States and FRA, The Ohio and Lake Erie-Cleveland Hub Study: Ohio DOT, Indianapolis-Louisville Passenger Rail Study: Indiana DOT, and the Alberta High Speed Rail Market Assessment: Alberta Infrastructure and Transportation. These projects required demand forecasting, operations planning, capacity analyses, and development of economic cost-benefit analyses.


Tri-State High Speed Rail Study

Dr. Kraft was the Deputy Project Manager for this study that linked Chicago and Twin Cities. He was responsible for all aspects of the Business Plan including demand analysis, operations planning, route costing, and implementation planning.

Minneapolis-Duluth/Superior High Speed Restoration of Intercity Passenger Rail Service – Comprehensive Feasibility Study and Business Plan

For this project, Dr. Kraft led the operations planning and financial planning analysis. This included developing train schedules and operating costs, and building the financial and economic analysis plans for the project. Dr. Kraft developed the Implementation Plan and prepared the Business Plan.

Florida Intercity Passenger Rail Business Plan

For Florida Department of Transportation, Dr. Kraft has been leading the Business Planning work designed to bring passenger rail service to Florida by 2010. The work includes evaluating 79-mph, 90-mph, and 11O-mph incremental passenger rail service. Specific tasks included demand forecasting, operations planning, implementation planning, and
financial analysis. The financial business plan was submitted to Florida DOT and used to develop internal financing and funding programs for high speed rail.

The Ohio and Lake Erie – Ohio Hub Business Plan Study

Dr. Kraft directed the development of the multimodal demand model used to assess the potential ridership for the Ohio Cleveland Hub. His team carried out an extensive market assessment and demand forecasts involving two trains technologies. He also completed the operating financial model and financial plan. The financial plan generated cash flow analysis, a sources and use of funds statement, NPV analysis, and financial sensitivity to establishing financial feasibility.

Midwest Regional Rail Initiative Business Plan

Dr. Kraft directed the development of a detailed financial and business model for the entire proposed Midwest Regional Rail Initiative’s (MWRRI) network. The financial analysis included revenue and cost analysis for operating feasibility through 40 years of project timeline. The operating financials were then used to prepare a detailed financial plan for the MWRRI. Dr. Kraft’s team estimated demand and revenue forecasts for the MWRRI along with having evaluated system performance sensitivities with regard to feeder bus service and a range of local and express train schedules.

Yang He, Ph.D.

Transportation Analyst


Ph.D., Systems & Industrial Engineering (minor in Management Information Systems), University of Arizona, 2007
MS, in Systems Engineering, University of Arizona, 2002
BE, Engineering Management, Beijing Polytechnic University, Beijing, China, 1998

Dr. Yang He is part of TEMS’ system modeling and analysis team. He has been involved in the development of the TEMS RightTrack”TM” for rail planning. He has been responsible for track database development, capacity model development, and capacity analysis studies. Dr. Yang has developed the latest versions of the TRACKMANTM model and its interface with RTC.


North American Market for High Speed Study

For a major manufacturer of high-speed rail equipment, Dr. He carried out a study to evaluate the potential for North American High Speed Rail Market and identified the most promising corridors for 220-mph and 300-mph technologies.

Rocky Mountain High Speed Rail Feasibility and Business Plan Study

For this study Dr. He helped develop the Right Track” rail planning models, and supported its calibration and use in analyzing the potential for intercity ridership and revenue. The analysis included revenue yield, and ridership forecasting for the full range of rail technology.

Tri-State ill High Speed Rail Study

Dr. He was responsible for the development and calibration of a demand model to assess the potential for high-speed rail in the Chicago-Twin Cities corridor. The speeds considered included 110 mph and 220 mph technology. Dr. He developed base and forecast year ridership and revenue estimates, as well as estimating the key inputs to the financial and economic analysis.

Minneapolis-Duluth/Superior High Speed Restoration of Intercity Passenger Rail Service – Comprehensive Feasibility Study and Business Plan

Dr. He supported the development of the long-term plan to bring passenger rail service to the Twin Cities-Duluth corridor. His work included evaluating the plan and developing mitigating strategies. In developing the Duluth corridor infrastructure, Dr. He calibrated both the RTC demand model and the RENTSTM financial and economic models.

Panama Canal Demand Study

Dr. He was responsible for the capacity analysis work associated with traffic flows at the West Coast Ports, as well as for the Panama Canal. The work involved developing capacity models for port, truck, and rail services that provide inland distribution from west coast ports to inland destinations.

Great Lakes and SL Lawrence Seaway: New Cargoes l New Vessels Study

Dr. He was responsible for the development of the databases, model calibration, trade-off analysis, forecasts, and sensitivity analyses. Dr. He developed the traffic forecasting model for the GLSLS NCINV Study.

Special Technical Team

Mobile Intermodal Corridor, Research Review Team

Team Member                                  Affiliation

  • Dr. Mark Burton, PhD                 University of Tennessee
  • Dr. David Clarke, PhD                University of Tennessee
  • Mr. Rick Tucker                          Port of Huntsville, AL
  • Mr. Jimmy Lyons                        Port of Mobile, AL
  • Dr. Craig Phillip, PhD                 Vanderbilt University
  • Dr. Ted Grossardt, PhD             University of Kentucky
  • Mr. Kent Sowards                      Marshall University
  • Dr. Mike Hicks, PhD                  Ball State University
  • Mr. Scott Hercik                        Appalachian Regional Commission